In one word: No. Let’s look at some supply/demand numbers for each of the grains.

Corn: USDA estimates for 2008 place total US Corn production at 13.32 billion bushels; usage at 12.64 billion bushels putting ending stocks at 1.675 bb (billion bushels). To put the ending stocks figure in perspective, let’s look at the table below:

End. Inv. are estimated above last year but below 2006 and 2005 in spite of the larger crop size and acreage.

Wheat: USDA’s Oct. 12 estimate is down to 307 million bushels from the previous estimate of 362 million placing the US ending stocks-to-use ratio at 13%, its lowest level since the a948/49 crop year. Worldwide ending stocks are estimated at 107 Mil. tons, down from the previous estimate of 123 Mil. tons.

Soybeans: USDA estimates place Soybeans US ending inventories at 215 Mil. bushels down from 573 Mil. the previous crop year while world ending inventories are estimated at 51 Mil. tons compared to 63 Mil. last year.

As far as I can tell, this Bull is intact. The problem when trading the Grains these days, are the daily price extremes from high to low and back. The only suggestion I can give you is to trade the charts in the direction of the long term trend, in other words the long side. Each time Corn, Wheat or Soybeans get back down to support, I would a buyer.

STRATEGY:

Corn: Support is at 362’0. Buy Dec. Corn at 358’0 with an initial target of 384’o followed by 398’0. Place stops at 334’0.

Wheat: Support is at 800’0. Buy Dec Wheat at 798’0 with an initial target of 836’0 followed by 838’0 followed by 854’0. Place stops at 774’0

Soybeans: Support is at 996’0. Buy Jan. Beans at 996’0 with an initial target of 1020’0 followed by 1036’0. Place stops at 958’0.

Good Trading,

Chad Geraigiri

Optimus Trading Group

1-800-771-6748

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.